Hold Up or Bail Out?

Bugging out is stupid - Yes I said it. The very idea of leaving behind your home and belongings to the whims of raiders, mobs and the elements is just stupid. Considering that the home is already built, insulated, and water proofed, and better than any survival shelter. And the pantry is hopefully well stocked. As long as the utilities are still working you have electricity, hot water and heating. You know all the nearby resources. You have a water heater, toilet, furniture, bathtub, library, entertainment, and a bed. Hopefully you know your neighbors well enough to rely on them, or at least not be threatened by them (yet). So then WHY would you 'bug-out' at all? What could possibly happen to drive you away from your home? Consider a brief discussion on disasters that have occurred within a single lifetime, and excluding the numerous multitude of extreme disasters throughout history. A very brief look at history and the various times when some disaster or another has forced people to walk out on everything they own.

First consider how much food one must eat just to survive without any physical labor or effort, but merely survival. Then consider how much water one must have for any substantial period of time and it quickly becomes obvious that one simply cannot carry enough food and water to survive for more than a few days. This fact should impress on us the extremely fickle and precarious nature of our survival. Humans can last for quite a while without food but we become exponentially weakened to the point of absolute ineffectiveness and then require a long time to recover from starvation. We survive even shorter periods without water, and eventually suffer organ damage and failure from dehydration. 

All this being said, there are uncommon or rare events that will make buging-out the most desirable option. And being prepared, even if only in terms of thought and planning, could be the difference between surviving and death. There are many forms of disasters that can devastate human civilization. Just the few that I could think of are written here. 

In my opinion the single largest threat poised to damn us all is in the category of "Anthropogenic Disasters". These include events such as riots, Massacres, Genocides, Ethnic Cleansing, population exchange, forced emigration, terrorism and war. The real horror of this class of disaster is the fact that it requires people to kill each other. While in this next century, the largest threat to humanity is probably global climate change, the masses of emigrants that will be forced from coastal cities will place more pressures on everyone. The cultural conflicts between emigrant peoples and locals will only highlight these problems. Since the 1970s we have seen the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and it's clash with civilized cultures. I know this statement may seem anti-islamic but the fact is, any culture where suicide bombings and murder (for any reason at all) is NOT flatly condemned IS inferior to a culture that embraces debate, discussion, and compromise over violence. What is a civilized country to do when it's population is overrun by Muslim refugees who eventually out number the more secular non-Muslims? What happens when they out number the secular population and can democratically force the government into a theocracy? This is a major problem happening right now in Europe. And it will only spread further across the globe.

Many Anthropogenic Disasters have nothing to do with Muslims at all. Throughout history they have occurred. The extinction of the Aztec empire and the black war (genocide) of Tasmania had more to do with imperialism than religion. Even in American history these disasters have occurred. The well documented Trail of Tears and the rampant murder of American natives between the 15th and 19th centuries are perfect examples.

I must highlight the Rwanda Genocide because it is the first such event to happen within my lifetime to draw my attention to such possibilities. In 1994 there were approximately 100 days of assassinations and murders using mostly machetes. Between 500,000 and 1,000,000 people were killed by their neighbors. as much as 20% of the population. An event of 'ethnic cleansing'. The Bosnian war is another important even in my life as it is the reason I have befriended so many Bosnian refugees. It was the largest war in Europe since WWII. Over about a three year period nearly some 95,900 people were killed and over 2.2 million people were displaced. And it is estimated that between 15,000 and 50,000 women were raped during this conflict. This is a tragedy of war that regularly goes unmentioned. Near the end of the Bosnian war was the the Srebrenica massacre which happened in July of 1995. Over 8,000 people were rounded up and murder in partially successful attempt at genocide. An event that precipitated from the delusion of a "safe zone" declared by the UN. As if mere declarations can prevent insanity. I must also mention the Holocaust, as we're all aware of was simply unbelievable at first. But as story after story leaked out it became clear that these unbelievable horrors were true. The same can be said of the Russian Purges and many other "anthropogenic Disasters".

    Riots, W.O.R.L. and Martial law - A riot can be a very scary thing. Occasionally they happen but are very rare. But given the extreme militarization of our once humble and friendly neighborhood police, riots will soon be moot and impossible. From microwave emitting dishes designed to burn people through walls, fully automatic guns spraying rubber bullets, tear gas, armed and armored police personnel, police tanks, surveillance drones, cell phones with GPS tracking, and infiltrating intelligence agents, as well as false flag operations staged to demonize protesters and help redefine them as "rioters" (as seen in the 1999 Seattle World Trade Organization protests, later called riots), true riots are quickly becoming legend and myth. In the past a leader would do something so abhorrent the people would drag them from their home and tear them to pieces or decapitated them, King Louis XVI of France comes to mind. These sorts of riots will most likely never happen again, giving errant politicians zero repercussions. While I do believe that sort of thing is sometimes warranted, I also believe that negotiations and court of law are viable options. But when such institutions as the holy court of law are equally corrupted as the politicians who would be put on trial, a lynch mob my become needed and a more primitive sense of justice must be expressed.

     
     W.O.R.L. - means 'without rule of law'. This could be any situation where centralized governance is inoperable. There are no taxes, no law enforcement, no judges, no jails, no legal consequences, a total "free-for-all". This is a very rare situation. It could be the result of war or mass natural disasters, massive population decreases, cessation of trade and transport of vital supplies including food and currency to buy law enforcement.

     As far a surviving riots and a W.O.R.l. situation I recommend a well stocked pantry and food supply as well as good relations with neighbors, friends, and family. Having a weapon like a gun could prove invaluable even if used only as deterrence to would be looters and mobs.

     Martial Law - is probably the scariest situation I can imagine. It's not something anybody wants to think about let alone talk about or plan for, especially since the words 'police state' is scary enough to force many people into simply ignoring its potential occurrence. It's not pretty, it's not even legal. However, the more corrupt and power hungry our leaders become the closer and closer we get to martial law and a police state until one day they simply declare it. Just as in Nazi Germany, North Korea, The U.S.S.R., Cuba and others, martial law can be enforced without a vote, without consent and without an 'official' declaration. When the Nazi's went through Germany to raid and murder Jews, they did not vote on it, and they did not publicize their plans, they just did it. This is the first terrifying thing about a police state, that nobody votes on it. They start by inventing divergence, labeling, instilling an 'us or them' mentality. Before long, 'us' means the oppressing government and not the people, while 'them' is simply everybody who isn't doing the oppressing. One does not even have to openly oppose the government, nor does one have to be guilty of any crime to be a victim of the state. The essential feature of terrorism, as totalitarianism, and fascism is the constant mental state of fear imposed onto its victims. I have no adequate advice for surviving such a scenario. In the last couple decades our government has blatantly trampled upon the single founding document intended to guarantee our freedoms, and in direct contradiction to their sworn oaths. This by definition makes them traitors and liars. However, as corruption has seeded itself into the deepest roots of our heritage, accountability has become something only for the plebeians. One could try to fight a police state but this is ultimately futile, they will always have the power to kill you. And while you may have a gun or two, they have armies, tanks, nukes, drones, bombers, snipers, pretty much everything that we the people are forbidden.

  The only way to fight a police state is socially. The very soldiers who point the gun can choose not to. I believe this is our only hope against a tyrannical police state. But looking back at history, at the actual trigger-men of the Nazi party for example, were brainwashed zealots, raised and taught to demonize Jews and non-arians. Just as the Muslim Jihadists today who believe they are doing good by killing 'infidels'. This mindset is the single greatest threat to civilization. The belief that murdering could ever be a good thing is revolting enough, but an entire generation of German citizens were taught this in the course of only a few decades, and many Muslims hold equivalent beliefs. It is abundantly clear that anything really could happen.

   One should always remember that when martial law is declared all citizens regardless of class, race, age, creed or gender are forced to be enemies of the state. Anybody who thinks they can buy their way out is just fooling themselves. Learn anything about Cesar in Rome and you'll find that when he needed money to pay for his soldiers and war campaign the first to die were Romes wealthy elite. This was partially to prevent them from hiring their own muscle, but also to fund his usurpation. So the lesson is, in times of tyrants and despots the wealthy and well off are most likely the first to go because they have the wealth and the potential to resist.

   

   Nuclear meltdow falls somewhere between the categories of natural disaster and a man made disaster. When the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant melt-down happened, the entire city of Prypiat was forced to evacuate. The clean up efforts took between half a million and a million people between 1986 and 1992 to contain the meltdown. Even today the city remains abandoned. Photos of apartments and homes clearly show dinner plates complete with the remnants of long decayed food placed around dinner tables, clothing is still found hanging in closets and folded in dresser drawers. For most of the population the evacuation was so abrupt that few had time to pack any belongings let alone short term or long term survival gear. Despite the importance of the lessons learned from this today Chernobyl is mostly forgotten. However there has been recent concern over the ecology of the local area. It appears that the radiation has sterilized the forests of decomposing fungi. This lack of fungi is causing a massive buildup of flammable biomass laced with radioactive materials. If a forest fire were to break out, much of the radioactive material locked within the organic matter would be released into the atmosphere, potentially spreading it across the northern hemisphere. (See Chernobyl forest fires.)

    A combination of natural disasters and man made disasters has in fact happened. On March 11th 2011 the massive 9.0 Tohoku undersea earthquake rocked Japan. It is the largest known earthquake in Japanese history, and among the four largest earthquakes recorded worldwide. The initial destruction racked up a tally of nearly 16,000 deaths, It is as the Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said "after the end of World War II, this is the toughest and the most difficult crisis for Japan." according to Wikipedia "estimated economic cost was US$235 billion, making it the costliest natural disaster in world history." In the aftermath of the devastation one word remained a constant fixture of concern, Fukushima. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was directly struck by the tsunami. The power plant was later revealed to be incapable of withstanding both the initial earthquake and subsequent tsunami. And further investigation showed that "those (nuclear plants) operated by the largest utility companies were particularly unprotected against potential tsunamis." As the Tsunami reached a height of 46 feet (14 meters) it easily overwhelmed the plant seawalls which stood at 33 feet (10 meters). The sea water flooded out the plants emergency diesel generators used to circulate coolant causing the generators to fail. The remaining back up systems were battery powered and ran out on March 12. This power failure compromised the the reactor control systems. As the reactors began to overheat  about a ton (2,000 lbs/ 907.18474 kilograms) of hydrogen from each of three reactor chambers began to build to explosive levels. Between March 12th and 15th numerous explosions destroyed the plants cooling systems. In a desperate attempt to mitigate the disaster attempts to cool the system with sea water have been met with much public scorn. As of this writing (2015) the site has not been cleaned and it is estimated that clean up will continue for decades. Since the meltdown nearly half a million people have been evacuated. Studies from the Chernobyl event suggest that life expectancy of the evacuees may from 65 to 58 years, mainly because of psychological distress causing suicides alcoholism and depression. (site Wikipedia)

    Here I'd like to add a point about Hacking. This is one of the few areas where the common man is capable of fighting against the relentless development of military and government technologies. Groups like Anonymous have become the most effective warriors against technologies used against people. The reverse of this potential is the threat of rival nations or terrorists hacking our systems. The potential to disable communications, trigger nuclear weapons, disrupt nuclear power plants, or compromise sensitive information is an ever looming threat. Imagine the scenario where a terrorist manages to hack into the American nuclear arsenal and launch a weapon against Russia. Or perhaps a single "authorized" person performs a "Dr. Stangelove" and launches an unprovoked attack. This disaster becomes even more terrifying when one realizes a few of the many possibilities and the repercussions. Malicious hackers could bring about a nuclear winter and doom us all or they could liberate us from tyranny.
   
   EMP disasters are also a real potential and fall into both categories of natural and man made disasters. An EMP or electromagnetic pulse, is a wave of high frequency radiation particles generally within the bands called light, radio, electricity and magnetism. They occur naturally from many sources and can be created by various technologies. A lightning storm, solar flare, or nuclear blast are the most notable sources of EMP waves. They are entirely harmless to humans as living organisms but they can cause havoc within the electronic systems that much of modern life depends on. An EMP attack or freak natural EMP could disable vehicles, telecommunications, private electronics, corrupt data, and even kill people with implants such as pacemakers. An airplane in mid flight could lose navigation and communication causing it to crash. A military base could be cut off from higher command without power. Nuclear power plants could go into meltdown because the regulating mechanisms become damaged. In general these concerns are addressed with adequate shielding on backup systems and data repositories. A simple conductive metal shielding is all one needs to protect electronic equipment and devices. A basic metal trash can can do this.

   Concerning natural disasters, a brief look at a few headlines makes it obvious that we live in a precarious situation... 2011, tohoku earthquake and tsunamimagnitude of 9.0. killed 13,000, 12,000 missing. Feb 27, 2010, Chile. Earhquake, magnitude8.8 + tsunami, killed 525. 2008, Sichuan earthquake. 61,150 dead... these events may seem far off as if they could never happen to us. Natural disasters are potentially a much bigger threat to human survival as a whole than man made (Anthropogenic) ones. This is because we have no to negligible influence on natural disasters. Apart from potentially triggering an earthquake or volcano with a nuke, we basically have no control over such events as volcanic eruptions. Man made disasters can be avoided by any astute and able government. But in terms of a direct threat to us as individuals an anthropogenic disaster is probably more immediate.

  In 2005 hurricane Katrina flooded and destroyed many gulf coast communities including the heavily populated New Orleans. It caused an estimated 81 billion dollars in damage. During this there were evacuations, raids, rapes, beatings, thefts, carjacking, murders, rampant police 'misconduct' a.k.a. total abuse of power and authority. To top this off the federal government took this temporary W.O.R.L situation to raid local residents for weapons. This is generally believed to be a practice run to later seize firearms from citizens in other U.S. cities. The method was to knock on the door and ask if the inhabitants are "ok and have plenty of food," then they'd kick in the door and raid the house, sometimes beating and arresting the occupants. FEMA was supposedly intended to assist in such situations as natural disasters as well as the Red Cross, however both FEMA and the Red Cross were very late in response and federal assistance was greatly lacking. Government aid supplied to one evacuation zone (the Louisiana Superdome) was equipped only to handle 800 people but received 30,000. Whomever is to blame for the lack of appropriate government response is irrelevant. The fact is our leaders are more willing to squander our tax dollars enriching themselves on fake wars than help the citizens who pay those squandered taxes. The lesson for the rest of us is simple. We cannot rely on the Federal nor local governments to help us. We are on our own, all we have is our family, friends and neighbors. We should take care of each other as individuals with zero expectation of assistance. This is the plain and simple reason why any sort of preparedness is essential for everyone.

   Volcano - In 1980 the large stratovolcano Mt. St.Helens suffered a series minor earthquakes called harmonic tremors. The north face of the volcano swelled to over 250 above its previous level. This swelling grew about six feet per day until extending over 400 feet above its previous elevation, until after 350 years of silence the north side of the volcano slid off toward the river below. The Pressure beneath this large mass of mountain was now free to erupt onto the surface. A pyroclastic (VERY hot ash and gas) flow at least 1,300 degrees Fahrenheit flowed down the mountain as more ash and hot gas exploded into the air. The direct blast zone, a range of about eight square miles was hit with the equivalent energy of 24 megatons of TNT. When the blast made contact with its first human victims (19 miles away) the flow was an average temperature of 680 degrees Fahrenheit (360 Celsius). Some 57 people are known to have died because of the initial blast from burns and asphyxiation. The material from the landslide was recorded to be 572 to 788 degrees Fahrenheit two weeks after the blast. The column of ash from the blast flew twelve miles into the sky in less than ten minutes it spread into the stratosphere. Glowing hot pumice bombs some as large as 65 feet in diameter were ejected 6,500 feet into the air. Over the nine hours of the initial eruption some 540,000,000 tons of ash fell over a 22,000 mile radius, and the ash circled the globe in 15 days. The total volume of ash was estimated to be .3 cubic miles. Following this was a massive flood of 18,000,000 cubic yards of ash, mud, water, and debris. 3,900,000 cubic yards of material was washed into the Columbia River. Now while less than 60 people died directly from the volcano blast the damage to property and wildlife was massive. Mt. St. Helens is a warning to everybody. There are hundreds of volcanoes in North America, Many are thought dormant until they rattle in some slight tremor. Currently the Yellowstone 'super-volcano' is believed to the second largest acidic volcano on earth. Acidic meaning it contains a lot of quartz (silica and oxygen) and is thus very explosive, as opposed to basic volcanoes (metals and little oxygen) which tend to be liquid and runny and hardly any explosive force at all. When Yellowstone erupts it will be the single largest volcanic explosion on earth since before humans. It could potentially wipe out most life on earth simply through the resulting ash shroud which would envelope the entire earth, effectively blocking out essential sunlight.

   Famine - In the last few generations famine has been very rare in modern first world nations. Trade between many regions has virtually guaranteed a foreign grown food supply. The obvious danger in this is our dependence on stability in a foreign countries and stable trade policies. Anything could happen; one nation could hypothetically place an embargo on the U.S. closing off our food supplies. Or a war could break out in a country like Mexico leading to a massive reduction in food production and exportation. Between 2010 and 2012 over a quarter million Somalians died of famine. While there are many factors that cause famines such as climate change, droughts, blights, invasive species, wars, trade sanctions, most are sadly caused by people themselves. In the modern world of globalization and industrial food production, Poverty is the most blameworthy cause of famine. After poverty, trade sanctions and profiteering bankers such as the "World" Bank are probably second to blame.  

   Plague - The two most destructive natural events in human history have been plagues and famines. These are mostly at the whims of nature. But various governments and groups have developed germ warfare to a degree of sophistication that is nearly unbelievable. Once relatively primitive days of catapulting a putrid and plagued corpse over a castle wall or using it to poison a well. Our modern understanding of germs has greatly enhanced the potency of many used in war. Some laboratories are now genetically engineering and even inventing viruses designed to behave in predictable ways. In the media one hears about the 'flu pandemic' has 3,000 ill, and killed two children, Or west Nile virus killed 16 elderly this year, or some protozoa of some kind has made it into swimming pools and is causing a pandemic. This is all purely media hype. Two children dying from the influenza when 3,000 are infected does not justify 'pandemic', that many people drown each year and there is no such thing as a pandemic of drowning. Whenever a minor cold virus spreads across the globe it rarely makes the news let alone headlines and C.D.C. intervention. This is because few people or even nobody dies. But as soon as two children die, it's declared a pandemic emergency situation. The real difference is in hype and not actual disease threat. Some disease outbreaks really are very serious and really do constitute a pandemic or emergency but these are very rare. Marburg virus, Ebola, and related microbes are very serious hazards. The worst disease outbreaks possible are ones created and spread by governments and military. Luckily for us they choose diseases that tend to flare up and kill everyone before they can spread very far. Famines, in my opinion, are a little more serious. They are long lasting and affect us vicariously by killing our crop plants which all take at least a full season to recover. Famines are the main reason to keep a long term food storage supply and seeds.

    The single best way to avoid diseases is to avoid population. However this isn't really practical so the next best thing is to remain healthy, practice good hygiene and sanitation, and avoid sick people. There are some measures one can take to help with this. In hospitals it's called 'Isolation' procedures. This simply means identifying the sort of infections that are around and using proper precautions. This may include H.E.P.A filters or particulate masks like M95 and simple isolation gowns, but could be as extensive as a full respirator and HazMat suit. Thoroughly wash your hands with anti-microbial soaps. Use Isopropyl alcohol based hand sanitizes, use Chlorhexidine Gluconate wash and Chlorine bleach for cleaning. Vitamins and exercise can be good for maintaining health but nothing beats basic fitness and nutrition. But sometimes we get a virus and there isn't much we can do about it. Sometimes we need antibiotics and unfortunately to get them we are required to see a doctor. Antibiotics are probably one of the hardest things to find in a survival situation. And having allergies to some could make it very difficult to cure a simple infection like strep-throat. Since I'm allergic to the three most commonly used antibiotics, penicillin, amoxicillin, erythromycin, I know I should prepare for the inevitable rarity of alternatives.

   Sometimes avoiding population is just not good enough. During World War II, in the Japanese occupation of China, bio-warfare was being implemented in an unprecedented scale. The Japanese used many delivery systems for many different diseases. One very old technique that was used on Chinese population was the flea bomb. This is used to infect mass numbers of people with diseases carried by fleas. In this scenario there is little one can do to avoid contamination and disease because the delivery method is very wide spread and non-targeted. In effect one can spread a disease throughout an entire region simply by propagating the infected insects. The only way to prevent this is to discourage the insects themselves and there are various ways of doing so.
   
 A brief note on Ebola. While Ebola has mostly faded from American media it is still an ongoing fight in Africa. Countries like Guinea and Sierra Leone are still suffering horribly from the disease. This is largely due to the lack of medicine, doctors and medical personnel. But the spread of the disease is further assisted by cultural practices concerning the dead, ignorance of facts about the disease, the stigma of illness in general, and the fear of being separated from loved ones. The 2014-2015 outbreak is the deadliest in history but as the death toll continues to rise, the numbers remain low in comparison to many other causes of death such as Malaria. Which according to Johns Hopkins, malaria kills over one million people each year. Not to belittle the deaths grief and anguish caused by Ebola, but it's effect on the human population is comparatively minor with just over 10,000 total deaths according to the WHO. And Liberia reported the release it's last Ebola patient on March 5th.

Zombies... yes zombies, mindless flesh eating corpses, not to be confused with texting teens on sidewalks. However they may occur, a curse, space radiation, a virus, and protozoa, whatever... I don't really see this being a threatening situation as compared to martial law. Even if they are the violent rabid rampaging blood spitting freaks of "28 Days Later" or the slow dim drooling ghouls from "Night of The Living Dead". Zombies seem like push-overs. And as unlikely as the event may be, the Zombie Apocalypse seems to be the modern doomsday scenario concept. When contemplating Z-day one is forced to imagine the possibilities of war, famine, isolation, self reliance, and survival. In the 50's it was the Red Army Invasion or Nuclear Holocaust (which is still as big a threat as ever)... the essential message is the same, SHIT CAN HIT THE FAN! You need long term plans and equipment and you need to be smart about it.

There are many more disasters that we could discuss and warrant consideration. Disasters such as Cosmic events like rouge planets, comet, asteroid or meteor impacts, wandering black holes, solar flares, gamma ray bursts, and malevolent alien invasion. But as these are in the realm of total annihilation where any chance of escape or survive is entirely futile, I refrain from further adding them to my discussion. 

I don't mention all these disasters as a doomsayer, rather I mention these because they are real (zombies?), they really could happen and they really have happened. Because they are all relatively recent and demonstrate a variety of potential threats. Because nature doesn't care if you still owe $20,000 on your car. Because your cell phone won't stop a flood from destroying your home. And because government is not there to help you.

End rant